In short feedback through Westpac with an up to date AUD/USD view over the approaching one to a few months:
- The Aussie’s conventional sensitivity to danger urge for food has largely been relegated to intra-day actions since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. A$ stays the strongest forex within the G10 for the reason that invasion, adopted by fellow commodity-linked currencies. Clearly the extraordinary surge in power and metals costs strengthens Australia’s already massive commerce surpluses.
- Nonetheless, the RBA’s sluggish shuffle in direction of lastly commencing tightening contrasts with an FOMC brazenly contemplating 50bp hikes.
- Furthermore, CFTC positioning knowledge reveals many A$ shorts have now been unwound. This could assist cap AUD/USD within the 0.7650/0.7700 space close to time period, although we anticipate dips to be modest multi-month.
AUD every day, what say the tech analysts on that penultimate bar, or any of the others?