I would not look an excessive amount of into the good points to this point at the moment as it is usually the results of some greenback weak point throughout the board. That largely is attributed to the extra tense and push and pull nature forward of the Fed tomorrow, as outlined here.
However let’s simply analyse the chart to attempt to make sense of issues forward of the RBA choice later.
As issues stand, the important thing draw back stage to look at stays the 0.7000 deal with and that’s one to be cautious of in buying and selling this week – relying on the RBA and Fed coverage choices that’s.
For now, let’s have a look at how the RBA may affect issues.
A 15 bps price hike will meet market expectations going into the choice and as such, I do not see that being materially optimistic for the aussie. Certain, the forex should still profit barely however the 100-hour transferring common @ 0.7102 after which current highs at 0.7180-90 (alongside the 200-hour transferring common @ 0.7184) will pose stiff resistance to any upside push.
As for a choice to hike charges by 40 bps, that shall be a shock because it may sign a quite aggressive RBA and one which the market shouldn’t be actually anticipating. That shall be bullish for the aussie and a push again in direction of 0.7200 shall be eyed first.
In the meantime, if the RBA doesn’t hike charges and pushes the choice to June, that does create some unwinding when it comes to market confidence and can doubtless see the aussie drop by a bit within the aftermath. The 0.7000 deal with shall be one to look at in that regard.