Forex

AUDUSD is looking to go into 2022 with a more bullish bias longer term

AUSDUSD on the weekly chart

The AUDUSD in 2021, reached its excessive for the 12 months on February twenty fifth at 0.8006 which was close to a pleasant pure resistance of 0.8000. The value low was not reached till the December third at 0.6992 (additionally close to a pure help degree at 0.7000). The vary of 1014 pips compares unfavorably to 2020s vary of 2260 pips, however is greater than the 619 pips in 2019.

The opposite current buying and selling ranges reveals the vary in 2021 was across the center of current yearly buying and selling ranges.:

  • 1400 pips in 2018
  • 950 pips in 2017
  • 1015 pips in 2016

Trying on the weekly chart above, the value excessive this 12 months moved to the best degree going again to the week of January 21, 2018 however got here up wanting the 2018 and 2017 highs at 0.8135 and 0.8124.

The autumn from the excessive noticed the value step down towards the 200 and 100 week MAs within the center to finish of August (see inexperienced and blue line). The lows in August, and once more towards the tip of September.

The bounce greater off of the September low (towards the 100 week MA) noticed the pair transfer again as much as check the swing space between 0.7477 to 0.7554 (the value excessive 0.75549) on October 28. That prime was additionally working into the 200 day on the every day chart (see inexperienced 200day MA on the every day chart under).

AUDUSD

AUDUSD on the every day chart

The shortcoming to increase above that swing space from the weekly chart, and likewise the 200 day MA from the every day chart, was the go-ahead to maneuver decrease into the tip of the 12 months. Within the course of, the pair moved down by means of the close to converged100 and 200 week MAs (blue and inexperienced traces), on the best way to the low for the 12 months 0.6992. That low on the weekly chart stalled inside one other swing space between 0.6690 and 0.70525. The final swing lows from 2020 stalled proper close to the low in 2021. Assist patrons leaned.

The ultimate transfer into 12 months finish has seen the value transfer greater (off these swing space – crimson circles within the weekly chart) and again above each the 200 week MA and 100 week MAs at 0.71735 and 0.72183 respectively. The present worth is buying and selling at 0.72528.

What does the present technical image say for the bias into 2022?

With the value bouncing off decrease swing space, clearly backside pickers leaned and gave the value a lift. Getting again above the 200 and 100 week MAs is one other step within the bullish route, however provided that the value can keep above these ranges going ahead. A transfer again under the 100 week MA at 0.72183 and the 200 week MA at 0.71736 would take any constructive bias away from the patrons and put the sellers extra in management.

Transfer under and sellers would goal the 38.2% or the transfer up from the 2020 low at 0.70525 and the lows from 2021 (and the 2nd half of 2020 too) at 0.6990. A break of these lows would improve the bearish bias and have merchants wanting towards the 50% retracement at 0.67578.

What if the weekly MAs can maintain help? What ranges are key on the topside at first of the 12 months?

Trying on the every day chart, the falling 100 day MA at the moment is available in at 0.72859. The excessive worth in December (this week) has reached 0.72754. If the value can get above that MA degree, it could give the patrons extra confidence, and have merchants wanting towards the 38.2% of the 2021 vary at 0.73796, adopted by the 200 day MA (inexperienced line) on the every day chart at 0.74428 (and shifting decrease). That MA stalled the rise on the finish of October, and could be a key goal to get to, and thru, if the patrons are to take extra management.

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