China’s strong yuan despite mixed data

China revealed blended
 financial knowledge 
noting a slowdown in a year-over-year comparability, however among the knowledge exceeded expectations. The Chinese language renminbi has been on the offensive towards the
 US greenback 
for the previous week, bringing USDCNH again to check the lows of the previous six months.

The economic system grew by 1.6% final quarter after 0.2% beforehand. Nonetheless, the GDP progress was 4.0% y/y – the bottom for the reason that second quarter of 2020. Industrial manufacturing added 4.3%, markedly higher than the anticipated 3.7%.

December retail gross sales knowledge disenchanted with progress slowing to simply 1.7% y/y, the bottom since August 2020.

Weak spot in home demand knowledge has not stopped the demand for the Chinese language renminbi, which is testing the 6.35 mark for the second month. For the reason that starting of December, the pair has bounced out of this space. Earlier in Might 2021, we additionally witnessed a chronic reversal close to this degree. The USDCNH traded steadily decrease from January to Might 2018 however turned to the upside initially of the commerce wars.

The yuan has settled nicely, consolidating in a slender vary since late October, which has created the potential for a resumption of the development. A agency consolidation beneath 6.35 on the finish of the week or the month could be a vital sign for beginning a brand new downward wave. Nonetheless, we can’t rule out the potential for one other bounce from these ranges in the meanwhile.

This text was written by FxPro’s Senior Market Analyst Alex Kuptsikevich.

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