Final week, the 200 hour MA within the
did a great job of stalling the rallies (see inexperienced line within the chart above).
Yesterday, the worth of EURUSD initially moved larger and prolonged above that 200 hour transferring common within the course of. Nevertheless, momentum couldn’t be sustained, and the worth rotated again to the draw back as Russian/Ukraine information began to dominate and the EUR moved decrease.
Right this moment the low within the Asian session look to strategy final week’s low at 1.12791, however may solely get to 1.1287 (eight pips wanting the low) earlier than consolidating close to the 50% retracement at 1.13075, and in the end breaking again to the upside.
As soon as once more, the 200 hour transferring common (inexperienced line) was in the end damaged to the upside within the London morning session (at the moment at 1.13571), however momentum couldn’t be sustained. The final three hourly bars have been capable of maintain resistance in opposition to that transferring common (the 100 hour transferring common and 38.2% retracement can be in play close to 1.13516).
The present value is at the moment at 1.1344 under each the 100 and 200 hour transferring averages.
Though damaged twice and failed twice, the 200 hour transferring common stays an vital barometer for the consumers and sellers. One other transfer above and the bias will shift again to the upside so long as the worth can keep above that transferring common degree.
Absent that (and sellers are already leaning), and a rotation again down towards 1.13189 to 1.13295 adopted by the 50% retracement 1.13075 can be the following draw back targets (with stops above the 200 hour MA).
Taking a broader take a look at the each day chart under, the excessive for February (on Feb 10) moved above a ceiling at 1.1483 (the excessive reached 1.1494 however shortly reversed again under that ceiling). The worth has been under the decrease 100 day MA since February 11. The highs from final week, and once more yesterday, stalled forward of that MA degree. Keep under retains the sellers extra in management.
On the draw back, the 1.1273 degree will likely be eyed. Get and keep under, will increase the bearish bias.