Investment banks rush to cut yuan forecasts following rapid losses

A median forecast of 9 banks now predicts the yuan to commerce at 6.63 per greenback on the finish of the second quarter. A majority of them anticipate the yuan to weaken additional to six.71 in the direction of the year-end.

The yuan hit 6.6510 per greenback on Friday, an 18-month low.

“Authorities might welcome a weaker yuan to assist progress and exports, as outflows are seemingly manageable,” Normal Chartered stated, revising down their end-June forecast to six.7 per greenback from 6.35 beforehand.

The banks had beforehand forecast the foreign money to commerce at round 6.4 at end-June of their annual outlook revealed late final 12 months, when the Chinese language foreign money was rising steadily and among the many performing rising market currencies.

The turnaround has come amidst April’s 4.6% plunge for the yuan towards the greenback, which has the foreign money on track for its greatest month-to-month drop since China unified official and market change charges in 1994.

A worsening progress outlook, harm by COVID-19 lockdowns, and the widening coverage hole with the USA can be more likely to drive flows towards {dollars} within the close to time period, analysts stated.

“We consider the market’s perceived financial coverage divergence between Fed and PBOC may attain the max stage in Q2 to Q3,” stated Wang Ju, head of Higher China FX and charges technique at BNP Paribas, referring to the Folks’s Financial institution of China.

“After that, Fed tightening dangers are seemingly priced in whereas China’s GDP may backside out on coverage stimulus,” Wang added, anticipating the yuan to weaken to six.6 at end-Q2 earlier than hitting a trough of 6.7 on the finish of the third quarter.

Here’s a abstract of some forecasts for the Chinese language foreign money:

INVESTMENT HOUSE Q2-2022 Q3-2022 end-2022 Q1-2023 Q2-2023

ANZ 6.55 6.4

BNP Paribas 6.6 6.7 6.6

UBS International Wealth 6.55 6.5 6.5 6.5


J.P.Morgan 6.7 6.75 6.8 6.8

MUFG Financial institution 6.6 6.65 6.7 6.65

Normal Chartered 6.7 6.65 6.6

HSBC 6.6 6.62 6.65 6.68 6.7

Daiwa Capital 6.9


Capital Economics 6.65 6.8 7

Union Bancaire 6.75 6.85 6.95 6.95


(Reporting by Winni Zhou and Andrew Galbraith; Modifying by Sam Holmes)

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