Yesterday, the RBNZ hiked charges by a better than anticipated 50 foundation factors (est 25 bps) and the value for the NZDUSD initially spiked greater.
Nonetheless, after the NZDUSD worth reached the 200 hour MA and the 200 day MA (inexperienced strains within the chart above), sellers leaned in opposition to the twin transferring averages, and the patrons turned to sellers pushing the value sharply to the draw back.
The transfer decrease didn’t finish till the 100 day transferring common was damaged down at 0.6782. The low worth reached 0.67513 earlier than snapping again greater modestly and closed again above the 100 day transferring common.
In buying and selling at present, the value primarily based close to the 100 day transferring common and rose as much as retest its 100 hour transferring common (see blue line within the chart above). Sellers leaned in opposition to that transferring common stage and put a halt to the rally for the day.
For the second time in two days, sellers leaned in opposition to a key transferring common (like they did in opposition to the 200 hour/200 day MAs the day earlier than), and the value rotated to the draw back.
The following fall to the draw back noticed the NZDUSD worth break again under the 100 day transferring common. Nonetheless, the value has since seen a rotation again greater.
The present worth traded above and under that transferring common because the buying and selling day works to an finish. Tomorrow – though the foreign exchange market will stay open – the volatility needs to be a lot much less as results of Good Friday.
With the 200 hour transferring common stalling the rise yesterday, and the decrease 100 hour transferring common stalling the rally at present, that retains the sellers extra management. The very best case situation for the sellers can be to maneuver again under the 100 day transferring common, will under the low at present which was additionally a swing low from March 16 at 0.6766, after which take out the low for the week at 0.67513 with the swing low from March 15 at 0.6728 the following draw back goal. These can be the steps within the downward course.
Conversely if the patrons find yourself leaning in opposition to the 100 day transferring common and pushing again to the upside, forward of the 100 hour transferring averages the 0.6805 to 0.68117. Swing space get above that after which the falling 100 hour transferring common and the door opens for additional upside probing.
Having stated that, the value remains to be nicely under the 38.2% retracement at 0.6859 and the falling 200 hour transferring common presently at 0.6874. Each these ranges would should be damaged to present the patrons extra confidence.
So the roadmap is laid out. The sellers are extra management under the 200 and 100 hour transferring common, with swing lows the following draw back targets.